Ted’s Talk: A closer look at John Schneider’s quarterback draft history

Listening to Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider talk, you’d think he would draft a quarterback every year if he had the ability. This dates back to his history with former Green Bay Packers GM Ron Wolf, the man who gave Schneider his first job in the NFL. Wolf wasn’t shy about drafting QBs with the thought that they could be developed and provide value for the team as a future starter or tradeable asset.

Schneider laments the fact that he’s only drafted two QBs since he took the GM job in Seattle in 2010 – Russell Wilson in the third round in 2012 and Alex McGough in the seventh round in 2018. It’s heavily rumored that he would’ve drafted Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen if given the chance.

After shaking down the Denver Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade, the Seahawks drafted his replacement in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Whoops, sorry, that happened in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Wait a minute…

Seattle still hasn’t drafted a QB since 2018?? John, what are you doing?!?

The Seahawks will definitely/probably/maybe select a QB in the 2024 NFL Draft. Geno Smith turns 34 this season and Seattle should prepare for the future. If Schneider follows his through on his talking points, drafting QBs may become a more common occurrence. But how has that worked out throughout his career?

Let’s look at all the QBs drafted by the team that employed John Schneider in the NFL.

Does this list inspire confidence in you? Does it make you want to spend valuable draft capital on a QB that may never see the field and won’t give any return on investment? Granted, Schneider wasn’t the GM until he was hired by Seattle so his actual involvement with the decision to draft a QB is unknown.

Still, I want to dig into this list a bit because there are some lessons to be learned.

QBs drafted in the first three rounds

Here, we’re looking at Aaron Rodgers, Brian Brohm, and Russell Wilson. Finding a franchise quarterback is more likely early in the draft. Duh.

I would argue that there’s a notable talent dropoff (and level of expected contribution) at all positions after the third round. The NFL seems to agree since they split the draft up into three separate viewing days with rounds 4-7 lumped together in the mid-day while the first three receive prime time treatment. These early selections are more valuable because choosing a QB – especially if it’s the wrong one – is more punitive because of the missed opportunities.

The common theme with Rodgers, Brohm, and Wilson was that their teams were in a situation with either an aging or unproven QB room. Thus, actively seeking the next face of the franchise and using a high draft pick to try and acquire that made sense.

When Rodgers was drafted by the Packers in first round of the 2005 NFL Draft, Brett Favre was heading towards his 36th birthday (fun fact – Favre and Geno Smith were both born on Oct. 10) and coming off consecutive 10-6 seasons. Green Bay needed to prepare for their future after Favre. Little did they know what twists and turns the Favre story would take!

Speaking of that, Brohm was selected in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft while Rodgers was preparing to be the Packers starting QB for the first time following Favre’s (short-lived) retirement. Rodgers’ career passing stats at that point were 35/59 for 329 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and 9 sacks taken. No matter what he’d done in practice or preseason, it was hardly set in stone that Rodgers would go on to become a future Hall-of-Famer. Brohm (and Matt Flynn to a lesser extent) were contingency plans.

Hold on. Matt Flynn? The same Matt Flynn who signed with the Seahawks in the 2012 offseason to a 3-year, $19.5 million contract to compete with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting quarterback position? Wow, what a coincidence!

Obviously, the Flynn signing never panned out as Seattle drafted Russell Wilson in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft and he seized the starting QB job in the preseason.

The Seahawks, like the Packers in the previous examples, were searching for their franchise QB. They had moved on from Matt Hasselbeck (tune in later in this article) in 2010 and had just endured a 7-9 season led by an injured Tarvaris Jackson and “Clipboard Jesus” Charlie Whitehurst. Flynn had a marvelous season finale with GB but was far from a sure thing.

Brohm was a huge miss for the Packers as they used a valuable second-round pick on a player that never took a regular season snap for Green Bay, and was outplayed by future Seahawks Legend Matt Flynn. Yet, for how many QBs flame out in the NFL, having two of three hit in this scenario is pretty remarkable. It gives some hope if Schneider decides to use an early-round pick on a QB.

The fact that both the Packers and Seahawks benefited by trading Rodgers and Wilson for a haul of draft picks and players later in their careers is a cherry on the top.

Drafted QBs not named Mark Brunell

I apologize to any Craig Nall truthers but there are a lot of draft picks here that could’ve been used in much better ways. Even guys like Sage Rosenfels or Matt Flynn who started NFL games at some point didn’t provide much value back to their original team.

Rosenfels was traded from Washington to the Miami Dolphins in 2002 for a 2003 seventh-round pick. Not a great return on investment one year later for the former fourth rounder.

Flynn left as a free agent so Green Bay didn’t receive trade compensation. He was, however, included in the formula for the Packers 2013 fourth round compensatory pick so – in a way – he provided some value back to Green Bay. Given Flynn was a seventh rounder and was the primary backup for a few seasons, that’s probably a win.

Everyone else except Mark Brunell? Those picks probably should’ve been used elsewhere. I ask forgiveness to Jay Barker’s family if they’re reading this, but he didn’t even make the Packers 53-man roster in 1995 as a fifth-round pick. That’s…not great. Remember that both Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman were drafted in the same round so there is definitely value to be found.

Mark Brunell

Green Bay drafted Mark Brunell in the fifth round of the 1993 NFL Draft. His scenario is actually pretty similar to Brohm and Flynn from above. When Brunell was drafted, Brett Favre had only played for one season in Green Bay, leading them to an 8-5 record with 18 TDs and 13 INTs. Favre made the Pro Bowl and things were looking good, but we’ve seen plenty of “one-year wonders” before. Brunell was insurance for Favre just as Brohm (and Flynn) were for Rodgers.

It was clear by 1995 that Favre wasn’t going anywhere, so Green Bay sent Brunell to the expansion Jacksonville Jaguars for a third-round pick and a fifth-round pick in the 1995 NFL Draft. The Packers were able to get something in return for Brunell once they knew that he wouldn’t be needed in Green Bay.

Two hidden characters

I could’ve stopped the article here and argued vehemently that – unless you’re actively looking for the next franchise QB – it’s a waste to spend extra draft picks on one given the direct evidence from Schneider’s history. I’ll still argue that later, but there are two examples that don’t show up on the list who add a bit of merit to the thought of frequently dipping into the QB pool.

Ron Wolf drafted a QB in consecutive seasons in Green Bay in 1998 and 1999 – during the prime of Favre’s career – while Schneider was off in Kansas City. Both were later traded, successfully netting a return for the Packers.

You’ll see why in a bit, but let’s start with Aaron Brooks who was drafted by Green Bay in the fourth round of the 1999 NFL Draft. Favre already had three MVPs and a Super Bowl victory to his name and surely had plenty left in the tank at just 30 years old. Brooks was the third-string QB in 1999 and didn’t take any snaps. He was part of a trade package to the New Orleans Saints in 2000 along with tight end Lamont Hall that brought linebacker K.D. Williams and a 2001 third-round pick back to the Packers. Neither Hall nor Williams amounted to much so if we think of this as Brooks for a third-round pick two years after he was drafted in the fourth round…it wasn’t a wasted pick.

Now, who was the second-string QB in 1999 that made Brooks expendable? That would be one Matthew Michael Hasselbeck, who was drafted by Green Bay in the sixth round of the 1998 NFL Draft. Hasselbeck was actually on the practice squad for the Packers in 1998 before serving as Brett Favre’s primary backup QB in 1999 and 2000. Mike Holmgren wanted Hasselbeck in Seattle and acquired his former backup QB in 2001 for a third-round draft pick in the 2001 NFL Draft along with swapping Seattle’s 10th overall pick in the first round with Green Bay’s 17th overall pick in the first round.

Clearly, this created a lot of value for a Green Bay from a former sixth-round pick.

Well, it could have.

Green Bay used those two picks to select defensive end Jamal Reynolds and linebacker Torrance Marshall. Don’t recognize those names? There’s a reason. Jamal “Too Small” Reynolds played in 18 games over 3 seasons with 3 career sacks. Marshall started 2 games in 4 seasons with 77 total tackles.

That’s the kicker with the argument to draft QBs with the thought of them producing future value as a tradeable asset…you need to nail the draft picks you get in return. It’s all well and good if you draft a QB, develop him, and trade him for picks but unless you draft good players with those picks it’s a waste of time and resources. You might as well have just drafted someone else in the first place.

By the way, Seattle used the 17th overall pick they got from Green Bay on Steve Hutchinson. Seems like a clear win on that trade.

Main takeaways

John Schneider has been making his rounds in the media this offseason and hasn’t been shy about his regret for the lack of QB draft picks during his reign in Seattle. He obviously reads Field Gulls and comes here for guidance.

So, what did we learn with this exercise looking at Schneider’s past?

Until Schneider finds the next franchise QB for Seattle, go ahead and start drafting ‘em. He’s had success when the team is actively looking to find the next franchise QB and the earlier he can pick one, the better in terms of potential hit rate. That’s not a new idea. Schneider’s teams have done pretty well when in that situation.

Once he finds “the guy” though? Don’t waste draft picks on a QB until you need to find a replacement. No matter what he says about wanting to go back to what he learned under Ron Wolf, it seems like his strategy in Seattle was more beneficial to the team. Even if you do find a backup QB that you can trade for value in the future, you still need to draft the correct players with those picks, or it was all for naught. Just select someone who can help the team right away even if it’s only on special teams. That will likely end up providing more value for the draft capital.

Now, John may only have a few years to find his next franchise QB so he may feel inclined to take more shots at the position like his old mentor. No pressure, right?